AEW x NJPW Forbidden Door Tracking as Lowest-Selling AEW Pay-Per-View of 2026

Early indications suggest that AEW x NJPW Forbidden Door may end up as the company’s weakest-performing pay-per-view of the year, according to Dave Meltzer of the Wrestling Observer Newsletter.

While final figures are not yet in, Meltzer noted that preliminary numbers point toward Forbidden Door finishing below AEW’s other 2026 pay-per-view events. He specifically mentioned that HBO Max — currently the key distributor for AEW pay-per-views — posted numbers comparable to those of Dynasty, which drew around 145,000 buys. Because other distributors came in lower than they did for Dynasty, Meltzer believes Forbidden Door likely lands a bit under that mark.

In his estimation, the primary culprit is the structure of the AEW World Championship situation on the card. Rather than headlining a traditional singles title defense, AEW World Champion MJF participated in a 12-man steel cage match, leading the Don Callis Family against a team captained by Mark Briscoe. Meltzer suggested MJF would have driven more purchases in a conventional title match setting than as one participant in a large multi-man bout.

The championship picture did get resolved shortly after the pay-per-view, as MJF successfully defended against Mark Briscoe in the opening match of the July 1 edition of AEW Dynamite.

External factors also played a role on the night. Forbidden Door aired opposite WWE NXT Great American Bash and a high-profile Yankees-Red Sox Sunday Night Baseball broadcast — though Meltzer noted the show did manage to avoid direct competition with a primetime FIFA World Cup match.

It’s worth noting that Meltzer characterized 2026 as a strong year for AEW pay-per-view overall, meaning finishing at the bottom of that pack is more a reflection of an unusually competitive field than a collapse in interest. Whether AEW adjusts its championship presentation strategy going forward remains to be seen.